When I look at the odds for UFC 137, I keep getting hung up on the fact that Nick Diaz is only a slight underdog to B.J. Penn. Since the fight was announced it seemed to me that this was a very, very good fight for Penn. While it should be exciting, I just don't like Diaz's chances to win.

Without dipping into the always annoying "but anything can happen in MMA" cliche, what am I missing? Where are Diaz's chances to win so great that he should only be a slight dog in this fight? (MORE>>>)